Prediction Thread!

By not particularly popular demand, let's throw out random predictions in some categories (my predictions are given, but meaningless)

The margin by which TGIF will win: 85%-15% among folks who don't abstain.

Turnout: 29%

Losing referenda: None!

Fee referendum with highest abstention rate: Lower Sproul.

Number of 1st place Senate votes I get: 14.

Number of executive offices I reach triple digits in: 0

Serious candidates who get fewer votes than I do (HAHA! Losers): No clue, but you can be sure they'll be identified in a "post of shame."

I also made the apparently bold prediction that BCR candidate Chad Kunert wasn't going to win a Senate spot last week, which a bunch of folks thought was wrong. I also made the bold prediction that SQUELCH! would win two seats. I'm more confident about the former, and pretty doubtful about the latter.

Tabulation is Wednesday evening.

posted by Beetle Aurora Drake 4/14/2007 12:33:00 AM #
Comments (10)

. . .

Comments:

I once again apologize for posting so much. Please God bring my girlfriend home from Ohio soon:

TGIF: 79%. I'd like to believe that a minimum 20% vote no on everything.

Turnout: 9100 people, a serious drop from last year. Online elections are better practically but actually encourage more isolation and consolidation of ASUC politics to friends of people running for office.

Losing Referenda: Everything except TGIF. All the races are surprisingly close.

Senate:
1 DAAP
1 Independent
9 SA
7 Calserve
2 Squelch - Can you say swing vote baby?

And I actually think SA sweeps the execs again, but I agree Taylor has the best shot to break that.

# posted by  Anonymous : 1:01 AM, April 14, 2007

 

Justin, my predictions are posted already in response to your "Completion!" post. I think your predictions are about right in the areas I didn't cover in that post. But, I think you will get triple digits in the Student Advocate race.

# posted by  jimf : 1:17 AM, April 14, 2007

 

PREDICTION:

President: Ilana Nankin (big margin)
EVP: Eunice Moon (by about 150 votes)
AAVP: Curtis Lee (big margin)
EAVP: Dwight Asuncion (by about 400 votes)

Student Advocate: Ajay

Senate:
1 Independent: Nadir Shams
1 Unite GREEK: Amanda Pouchot
1 DAAP: Gabriela Galicia
6 Student Action: Jackson, Shen, Silver, Choy, Wong, Wu
1 College Repub: Kunert
2 Squelch: Wang, Weiner
7 CalServe: Duong, Hammon, Jain, Parra-Fitch, Galeon, Winston, Dionne
1 APPLE ENGINEERING: Mastrodonato

TOTAL:
8 Student Action
7 CalServe
2 Squelch
1 Independent
1 College Republican
1 DAAP

I'm least confident about Kunert; If he doesn't get in I think an additional CalServe will get in--probably Seaty, in which case you'd have 8 SA, 8 Calserve.

# posted by  Anonymous : 1:31 AM, April 14, 2007

 

If Kunert does make it, I really doubt SQUELCH! will be able to get two.

# posted by  Beetle Aurora Drake : 1:41 AM, April 14, 2007

 

nostradamus, your predictions for specific people for Senate are close to mine, except I think that

- in addition to who you have listed, Ana Luz Acevedo-Cabrera will get in for SA;

- there will be only one Squelch candidate elected;

- Chad Kunert will not get in;

- Dimitri Garcia rather than Gabriela Galicia will get in for DAAP unless you know that he is planning to drop himself;

- Seaty as the first CalSERVE candidate in terms of his ballot number will get in because people who don't know who to vote for from CalSERVE, but like the party, will list him first (and Shawn Jain will be the potential 8th CalSERVE senator).

- There could be one more UNITE Greek senator elected aside from Amanda Pouchot.

So that's why my prediction is 9 SA (possibly 10 if CS's Shawn Jain doesn't make it), 8 CS (possibly 7 if Shawn Jain doesn't make it), 1 DAAP, 1 Squelch, and Nadir Shams.

# posted by  jimf : 2:06 AM, April 14, 2007

 

culliton

1. there is no way ana luz will get in--parra-fitch will get the #1 votes from her people.

2. this is as good a time as any for squelch to get 2. their presence on sproul sucked, but they seemed to have run a serious campaign.

3. kunert has a solid base of voters-he will probably get in.

# posted by  Anonymous : 2:15 AM, April 14, 2007

 

The SQUELCH! did have a bad presence on Sproul this year. Too many people with actual jobs and midterms.

All you really need to win a senate seat though is 400 votes, and I think Wang and Weiner each have very strong and very separate constituencies. Combine it with runoff from the weaker Squelch candidates and I think they've got a real shot.

I don't think I'd bet on it, but 2 is really possible and I think I'm okay with being a little optimistic.

# posted by  Anonymous : 2:40 AM, April 14, 2007

 

As a CS Candidate, I predict:

President: Nankin
EVP: Allbright
AAVP: Lee
EAVP: Asuncion

Senate:
1 DAAP: Garcia
2 Squelch: Wang, Weiner
1 Independent: Shams
9 SA/UG/AE: Kuo, Mastrodonato, Shen, Jackson, Kim, Silver, Wong, Choy, Osmena
7 CS: Jirachaikitti, Duong, Hammon, Jain, Parra-Fitch, Galeon, Winston

# posted by  Anonymous : 2:52 AM, April 14, 2007

 

i think that murga guy might have a chance as well. the attention from the daily cal, plus his name stuck out on the ballot. maybe between 18-24 top senators.

# posted by  Anonymous : 3:26 AM, April 14, 2007

 

Beets, not that bold, dude. I feel almost certain Chad won't get in.

# posted by  Anonymous : 9:38 PM, April 15, 2007

 

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