Tuesday, September 16, 2003
BUT!
No one cares what I think. So for me to say my opinion is sort of pointless. Instead, let's look at what impacts the moving of the election is going to have, specifically on voter demographics.
1. The primaries. For reasons I can't really fathom, people consider national elections to be much more important than state elections. (Maybe it has something to do with the fact that federal courts can overrule state courts on state issues whenever the hell they feel like it) Thus, the big draw to the election is going to be the Democratic primaries, which naturally is going to draw more Democratic voters than Republican voters. (There're no real Republican primaries, as Bush is running unopposed) This is one of the big reasons why conservatives tend to be all "Boo" and liberals seem to be more "Yay" about this.
2. Attitude. People are starting to get fed up with the recall. Put it off another 5 months, and there's going to be much less interest. This means that fewer people will go to the polls to vote on the recall, which will amplify the effect of it being during the democratic primary election.
3. SB60. SB60 goes into effect January 1, 2004, according to Calwatch. This change moves the election from before SB60 going into effect to after. This may increase voter fraud, though I doubt it'll be huge.
4. SB60's Referendum. On the other hand, Tom McClintock's referendum, demanding that SB60 be placed on the March ballot has the potential to turn this into even more of a circus than it already is. If the referendum gets enough signatures, then the implementation of SB60 will be postponed, eliminating the voter fraud from 3. However, since it'll become a huge issue for illegal immigrants, the presence of the referendum on the March ballot will likely increase voter fraud.
But that's not all. SB60 is an important issue for non-immigrants and legal immigrants, too. People, in general, aren't particularly happy about it. This includes traditionally Democratic groups such as unions. SB60 has the potential to draw many more conservative voters to the polls, as well as placing the spectre of SB60 right next to Davis's recall. People might think twice about opposing his recall when they're simultaneously being bombarded by press and ads about SB60.
Ironically, Davis's desperate effort to get Latino voters on his side may come and bite him in the ass if SB60 attracts people to the same ballot that his recall is on.
By the way, most of this stuff also impacts the prospects of Prop 54. Keep in mind, though, that while most of the people who would vote in support of SB60 also oppose Prop 54, not all Prop 54 supporters are going to be friendly to SB60.
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